2017 Risk Analysis Report by FRONTEX

The Frontex Risk Analysis Report concentrates on the current scope of Frontex operational activities, which focuses on irregular migration at the external borders of the EU and Schengen Associated Countries. Central to the concept of integrated border management (IBM), border management should also cover security threats present at the external borders.

This year’s report emphasized that although migration pressure has significantly decreased in 2016 compared to 2015, (Frontex estimates that approx. 382 000 migrants attempted to cross EU borders illegally in 2016 against 1.8 million in 2015) the numbers for 2016 are still relatively high compared to the figures of the beginning of the decade.

While migration pressure at the Greek–Turkish border significantly decreased following the EU-Turkey statement, that came into effect on 18 March, which permitted the readmission of migrants to Turkey, and the closure of the Western Balkan route due to stricter border management, other borders witnessed an increased in migrant arrivals.

Italy, for example, registered a 17% increase in 2016 in comparison with the previous year. Most migrants heading for Italy departed from Lybia on unsafe embarkations, and while some were rescued, thousands of them lost their lives attempting to cross the Mediterranean. Further, a record number of arrivals was also reported on the Western Mediterranean route, where 10 000 migrants were detected. Most migrants on this route came from Sub-Saharan and North African countries.

For the fourth consecutive year in 2016, persons claiming to be Syrian nationals represented the highest portion of migrants illegally entering the EU (17% of total EU). As in 2015, most Syrians used the Eastern Mediterranean route but their numbers decreased by more than 80%, with 84 500 detections in 2016.

The Frontex report concludes that close cooperation between border guards, police and customs officials is essential to ensure border security and to tackling a range of criminal activities at Europe’s external borders. As the geopolitical situation around Europe remains volatile, border control measures will require a combination of rapid and efficient coast guard actions, cooperation with countries of transit and origin of migrants and the more effective returns of migrants who do not have a right to remain in the EU.

Full report available here